Whereas several agrarian sectors could experience primarily negative consequences of climate change, these developments can actually offer opportunities for other sectors. Mild winters with higher temperatures will prolong the growing season. This can be very favourable for productivity. Higher concentrations of CO2 are also beneficial to crops.
However, there are also crops which suffer during long, hot summers characterised by long periods of drought or heavy downpours. In addition, tropical diseases and plagues can survive better in the Netherlands.
Global agrarian market
Scientists from Plant Research International (PRI), the Agricultural Economic Institute (LEI) and Alterra , all departments at Wageningen UR, believe that the Netherlands can consolidate its strong position on the global agrarian market. As compared with Southern Europe, the prospects are favourable for the Netherlands ; countries such as Russia and the Ukraine can even derive enormous benefits from the changing climate.
Climate adaptation
Climate change brings with it a great many uncertainties. The expectation is that new diseases and plagues will emerge although there is still a great deal that is unclear about these. The impact of climate change on the physiology of plants is also being studied intensively by PRI. Nonetheless, researchers in Wageningen believe that the Dutch agricultural and horticultural sectors are flexible enough to capitalise on the changing circumstances.
Densely-populated areas
In the event of substantial climate change, farmers and growers in densely-populated areas could be compelled to convert their traditional farms to sheltered farms; switching to the cultivation of a different variety or crop would be sufficient should the climate change be moderate. There are also excellent opportunities for farmers to focus on water storage and purification, nature management and recreation.
Salinisation
A typical Dutch problem is that of the potential salinisation of the soil as a result of the rise in sea level. Crops such as grasses, grains, fruit and potatoes are particularly sensitive to salt. Sugar beets on the other hand, are actually positively affected by salinisation; the sugar content increases. For this reason, in regions where salinisation occurs, saltwater crops (halophytes) could be cultivated, such as glasswort and gold-of-pleasure. Researchers at PRI view the development of salt-tolerant varieties as another way of adapting to salinisation.
Weather extremes
In addition to the gradual climate change, extreme weather conditions will also increase. It is still difficult to predict the frequency with which these extreme conditions will occur. Late frost, heat waves, downpours or hail can have major consequences for agriculture, yet this does not inspire fear for the competitiveness of the Dutch agriculture and horticulture industry. After all, extreme weather conditions will hit farmers and growers in competing countries just as hard, the Wageningen UR researchers predict.
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